Global Auto Production Forecast Downgraded Further for 2022


While the March 2022 forecast update reflected the impact of
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the April update addresses some
additional challenges that have arisen, including a rather sluggish
recovery in semiconductor supplies, the impact of further COVID
lockdowns in China and the longer-term influence of high raw
material prices that will put added pressure on new vehicle

“Currently the greatest risk to the outlook comes from the
threat of further or prolonged lockdowns in mainland China and the
contagion into already stressed global supply chains,” said Mark
Fulthorpe, Executive Director, Global Production Forecasting,
S&P Global Mobility.

The April 2022 forecast update reflects noteworthy reductions
for several markets, with the most significant reductions focused
on Europe and Greater China.

The following reflects the S&P Global Mobility April 2022
Light Vehicle Production Forecast update:

The more noteworthy regional adjustments with the latest
forecast update are detailed below:

  • Europe: The outlook for Europe light vehicle
    production was reduced by 498,000 units for 2022. With the April
    update, we see European production remaining challenged as the
    region continues to navigate the Russia/Ukraine impact as well as
    ongoing supply chain issues.
  • Greater China: The outlook for Greater China
    light vehicle production was reduced by 396,000 units for 2022.
    Heavily hit by strict COVID containment measures, light vehicle
    production in March is estimated to have declined by 8% a
    year-over-year. In April, the Omicron variant has spread to
    Shanghai and forced local government officials to implement
    comprehensive lockdowns. As the influence of lockdowns expanded
    from vehicle production to parts production, component shortages
    are expected to interrupt auto production outside of Shanghai in
    the near-term, leading to further vehicle output impact in
    following months.
  • North America: In spite of the backdrop of the
    Russia/Ukraine conflict and continued supply chain challenges, the
    outlook for North American light vehicle production in 2022 remains
    flat at 14.75 million units. Production in Q1-2022 came in a bit
    higher than forecast with 3.55 million units produced. However,
    production in Q2- 2022 was revised down on continued supply chain
    struggles and concerns surrounding additional logistics issues at
    border crossings between the US and Mexico in Texas that may
    exacerbate already strained conditions in the near-term.

This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.


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